The useful word is net. It makes the whole redistricting exercise look rather less expansive than the effort that went into it.
Axios reports that Republican strategists privately fear a worst-case net gain of just one seat from this year's redistricting battle. That is a pessimistic scenario, not an election result. Nobody has counted November's votes. This appears to be the part that remains difficult to arrange with a pencil.
A district can be redrawn around yesterday's preferences. The people inside it are not required to preserve those preferences as a courtesy to the cartographer. They may notice prices, dislike a president or decide that being treated as reliable electoral furniture has become irritating.
Make powerful people uncomfortable.
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The distinction between favorable boundaries and actual persuasion is small enough to disappear in a strategy presentation. It is large enough to contain an electorate.
We've already encountered campaign activity being offered as proof of campaign success. This version adds a drawing board. The important people change the arrangement and wait for the public to produce the expected result.
Republicans could still do better than their worst-case arithmetic. Democrats should not confuse this report with votes already won. But the anxiety is revealing: after all the work of choosing a more convenient public, they are still obliged to ask it.


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